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Tag:strength of victory
Posted on: December 29, 2010 12:30 pm
 

FINAL Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios

Well, we made it through another tiebreaker season.  Thanks to all for your participation, well-thought out comments and feedback.   Atlanta losing on Monday night certainly made for an interesting group of scenarios for the #1 seed in the NFC, but Philadelphia laying an egg on Tuesday night simplified many things in the NFC.   Full scenarios are listed below.

NOTES:
- ATL will be #1 seed UNLESS they lose and either NO or CHI wins
- ATL will be #2 seed if they lose and NO loses and CHI wins
- ATL will be #5 seed if they lose and both NO and CHI win
- NO can only be a #1 or #5 seed and will be #1 if they win and ATL loses
- If NO not #1 seed, they will be #5 and play AT NFC West winner (STL or SEA) Wild Card weekend (Saints beat both teams this year at home)
- CHI is the #2 seed unless ATL and NO both lose and CHI wins...then CHI would be #1 seed
- PHI is the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed (either GB, NYG or TB) on Wild Card weekend
- The STL-SEA winner (or STL in case of a tie) will host ATL or NO (whichever doesn't win the South) on Wild Card weekend
- GB will know by game time if their opponent (CHI) is locked into #2 seed (CHI would need ATL and NO losses in 1pm ET games to have chance at #1 seed).
- If GB wins, they will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend as the #6 seed.
- If TB wins early, GB knows they will need to win to get into playoffs and TB will root for GB and NYG losses to get a trip to PHI.
- TB game only matters to NYG if the Giants tie WAS.
- NYG can only get in as #6 seed and would play at PHI for a third game this season against the Eagles with a WIN and GB loss
- If TB, GB and NYG all win or all lose, GB will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend based on GB winning strength of victory tiebreaker among the three teams at 10-6 or 9-7.   At 10-6, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 74 while NYG and TB would have maximums of 65 and 59 wins respectively.  At 9-7, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 63 while NYG and TB would have maximum of 61 and 49 wins respectively. 

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division and a first-round bye.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

 NEW YORK GIANTS
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

 ST. LOUIS Rams
  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win

Posted on: December 28, 2010 11:40 am
 

Week 17 NFC Playoff Scenarios (prior to PHI-MIN)

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE (prior to PHI-MIN Week 16 game):

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + one PHI loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + one PHI loss or tie
   3) NO loss or tie + CHI win + two PHI wins + ATL clinches strength of victory
       tiebreaker over PHI (see NOTE below)
[NOTE:  This is a three-way strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker between Atlanta, Chicago and Philadelphia that Chicago cannot win. Atlanta wins SOV tiebreaker unless NYG, SF, IND, and PIT all win; if all four win, Philadelphia ties Atlanta on SOV and, since Chicago drops out of tiebreaker, scenario reverts to Step 1 of two-way tiebreaker and Philadelphia wins over Atlanta based on head-to-head victory.]

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a first-round bye:
   1) one PHI loss
   2) CHI win
   3) CHI tie + one PHI tie
  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie + one PHI loss or tie

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
   1) PHI wins twice + CHI loss or tie
  Philadelphia clinches homefield advantage:
   1) PHI wins twice + CHI loss or tie + ATL loss + NO loss or tie
   2) PHI wins twice + ATL loss + NO loss or tie + PHI clinches at least a tie
       in strength of victory tiebreaker over ATL (see NOTE below)
[NOTE:  This is a three-way strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker between Atlanta, Chicago and Philadelphia that Chicago cannot win. Atlanta wins SOV tiebreaker unless NYG, SF, IND, and PIT all win; if all four win, Philadelphia ties Atlanta on SOV and, since Chicago drops out of tiebreaker, scenario reverts to Step 1 of two-way tiebreaker and Philadelphia wins over Atlanta based on head-to-head victory.]

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

 ST. LOUIS Rams
  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com