Tag:redskins
Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:23 pm
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WEEK 17 AFC SCENARIOS - Chaos continues

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace
 ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:02 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

Well...we made it.   On week 16, thanks to the Giants turning in a clunker of a game against CAR, the final two playoff spots were secured.

Official Scenarios are below (prior to CHI-MIN game).

NOTES:
- MIN wins tiebreaker over NO at 13-3 based on conf record (10-2 vs. 9-3)
- Although MIN has lead on #2 seed and 1st round bye, PHI, DAL and ARI can all still garner the #2 seed.  If MIN against CHI, only PHI can catch MIN (PHI wins tiebreaker on conf record).
- ARI wins 3-way tiebreaker at 11-5 with DAL and MIN (MIN drops out on conf record and ARI beats DAL on common opponents 4-1 to 2-3)
- PHI CANNOT be the #4 seed (if they win they will be #2 or 3 seed, if they lose they lose division title)
- DAL CANNOT be the #5 seed (if they lose they lose to GB based on overall or H2H)
- GB can only be the #6 seed if PHI loses and if GB loses in that case its very likely they would play ARI AGAIN a week later in the Wild Card round
- Right now, MIN can be any seed from #1 thru #4.  If they win tonight they can't be #4 and if they lose tonight they can't be #1.


WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- North division.
              Arizona -- West division.
              Philadelphia -- playoff spot.
              Green Bay -- playoff spot.
              Dallas -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Seattle,
              Carolina, Atlanta, San Francisco, NY Giants.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   New Orleans clinches homefield advantage.

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches homefield advantage:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) MIN win + NO loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO 
   1) MIN win or tie
   2) PHI loss or tie
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches a first-round bye:
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) ARI win + MIN loss + PHI loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win or tie
  Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) PHI win + MIN loss
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) PHI win
   2) PHI tie + MIN loss or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches East divison:
   1) DAL win
  Dallas clinches a first-round bye:
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) DAL win + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie

Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:50 am
 

TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES DISCUSSION

Due to popular demand, I am starting this thread to discuss general NFL Tiebreaker procedures.  Feel free to bring up any tiebreaker topics here, but let's keep the scenarios to the conference threads and let's try to limit this to procedures and historical discussions.

Also...if at all possible, let's try to keep comments brief unless detailed descriptions are absolutely necessary (Brett...that means you).

Look forward to the chat.

Here's a starter...

Let's imagine for a second that the six teams tied at 7-7 in the AFC were currently battling it out for Wild Card spots (i.e. BAL and DEN were 6-8 instead of 8-6).  The JAC, TEN, HOU divisional situation lends itself to the previous discussion of divisional tiebreakers and the current procedures language in the NFL By-Laws.

Is there any question as to how the tiebreakers are applied in this situation based on the procedures OR is the question still about certain language being superfluous? 
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:26 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

NFC
(Key Week 16 Games: CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  

MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
 

PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
 

GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

DALLAS Cowbo
ys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  
Posted on: December 21, 2009 1:51 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

Here's prelim look at Week 16 (i'll break this into AFC and NFC for Tuesday if that's the way people want it):

NFC
(Key Games: NYG at WAS Monday night, CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

  NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
  PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
  GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY Giants BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) GB win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
  DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY GIANTS BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) DAL win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
 
 AFC
(Key Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

  SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie
  NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie

[Note:  I think DEN scenario works with HOU beating MIA because DEN would clinch SOV over HOU in this scenario.  In initial review, I have DEN +12 wins in unduplicated victories and HOU only has ability to gain 9 wins over last two weeks.] 
Posted on: December 15, 2009 10:46 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO NFC WEEK 15 SCENARIOS)

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + MIN loss or tie
   2) NO tie + MIN loss

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie
   3) GB loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches West division:
    1) ARI win + SF loss or tie
    2) ARI tie + SF loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PHI win or tie + NYG loss or tie
   2) PHI win + DAL win or tie

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + DAL loss
   2) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

The GB situation is interesting.  Since GB beat DAL H2H and there is no other team that DAL can use from another division in a three-team tiebreaker, DAL would need to win the East division title to keep GB out.  If DAL loses this week to NO, the potential three-team tie for the division title among PHIL, DAL and NYG could stretch out to strength of victory if PHI win is against DEN.  However, it appears there is no way in that scenario that DAL could finish ahead of NYG, meaning DAL would have no chance to win the division, which means they could not clinch a playoff spot ahead of GB.

 

Posted on: December 15, 2009 12:21 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 AFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO AFC WEEK 15 COMMENTS)

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland.

 SAN DIEGO Chargers

  San Diego clinches West division title:
   1) DEN loss
   2) SD win or tie + DEN tie
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie
  San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   4) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   5) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   6) MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   7) NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

 CINCINNATI Bengals

  Cincinnati clinches North division title:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie + MIA loss + NYJ loss + JAC loss

 
 
 
 
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