Listed below are official Playoff Scenarios for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season.  This was a bit of a doozy with Green Bay's situation regarding clinching a playoff berth this week.  The reason is that so many teams in the mix play each other (DET-NO, NO-ATL, NYG-GB and two DAL-NYG games).

After spending much of Sunday night and Monday a.m. on Green Bay's playoff scenarios, the situation was made easier when my NY Giants laid an egg in NO.  That loss meant that no Wild Card team can come out of the East division and beat GB (even though NYG can beat GB H2H next week, they would have to win out to keep pace at 11-5 and that would mean 2 DAL losses....which would mean NYG is division champion and not in Wild Card race).

GB has some interesting twists as they have tiebreaker advantage over nearly everyone except NYG (could lose H2H this week...but that's moot wrt Wild Card berth) and DET (DET can beat GB on Common Opponents).  GB already has beaten both NO and ATL H2H.  Also...the big twist is that ATL beat DET H2H and can use DET in some scenarios to jump ahead of GB.  In the GB playoff scenario below where they make it in with a TIE + CHI loss or tie, they need that loss as ATL can beat GB at 11-4-1 if DET is also 11-4-1 and not division champion.  ATL gets in as #5 and DET is #6.  Thus...the need for the CHI loss or tie which would negate two other teams ahead of GB in NFC North.

So after all that, here are the Scenarios for GB (Division and Playoff) and SF (division only).  If NYG had beaten NO last night GB would have had a scenario to clinch a first round playoff bye...but alas...that did not occur.

WEEK 13 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

NFC

  CLINCHED:    None.
  ELIMINATED:  Minnesota, St. Louis.

GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches North Division title:
   1) GB win + DET loss or tie
   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie + DET loss
   3) CHI loss + DET loss
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie
   3) CHI loss
   4) ATL loss
   5) DET loss
   6) NO loss + ATL tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
  San Francisco clinches West Division title:
   1) SF win or tie
   2) SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

AFC

  CLINCHED:    None.
  ELIMINATED:  Indianapolis.


Joe

 

  

Here are official scenarios we sent to the League for Week 12:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

  San Francisco clinches West Division title:

   1) SF win + SEA loss or tie

   2) SF tie + SEA loss

 

GREEN BAY Packers

  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:

   1) GB win + DAL loss or tie + ATL loss

   2) GB win + DAL loss or tie + NO loss

   3) GB win + ATL loss + NYG loss or tie


The Niners situation is fairly obvious as they need to win on overall record at this point since they can't clinch either H2H, division record, common games or conf record tiebreakers.   

As for GB, that's a little more difficult since so many teams involved have to play each other still.  NYG and DAL still have 2 games left H2H.  NO plays nearly everyone involved as they play NYG this week and still have DET and ATL on their remaining schedule.

A GB win gets Packers to 11-0 and 11-5 at worst.  If Saints or Falcons get to five losses, they cannot get in over Packers.  Neither team can use DET or CHI to get in over GB either since both of those teams would lose a tiebreaker to GB at 11-5.  At 11-5, both DET and CHI would have to win certain games to tie GB in the division at 4-2 and that would lead to GB beating both teams on common opponents.  Currently GB leads DET in common games at 9-0 vs. 6-2 and leads CHI 8-0 vs. 6-2 and GB would go to 9-0 in CHI scenario with win at DET this week.

A DAL loss or tie this week is one key as that would force DAL to beat NYG twice to stay at pace with GB and would only leave the NFC East champion and no Wild Card contenders.  If you combine the DAL loss/tie with either an ATL loss (ATL lost to GB H2H and would have inferior conf record and can't use anyone to jump GB in multi-team tiebreaker) or a NO loss (loss would require NO to beat either DET or ATL to stay at pace with GB), that gets GB a playoff spot.

Since GB plays NYG wk 13, an NYG loss/tie on its own is not as key since the Giants could beat GB H2H in tiebreaker.  However, for that NYG-GB H2H to come into play, NYG would have to sweep DAL thus eliminating the Cowboys from this tiebreaker and gives NYG the East title.  When you combine that with an ATL loss it gets GB to a point where only one of DET or CHI could be Wild Card in front of them (the other would be the division winner).

If you don't factor in potential ties (especially for NO games down the road), GB really only needs a win and either a DAL loss or NYG loss to get into the playoffs.  However, ties are possible and must be factored in to actually CLINCH a playoff spot with no room for error.   

Hope that helps...Joe  

 
   

Well, we made it through another tiebreaker season.  Thanks to all for your participation, well-thought out comments and feedback.   Atlanta losing on Monday night certainly made for an interesting group of scenarios for the #1 seed in the NFC, but Philadelphia laying an egg on Tuesday night simplified many things in the NFC.   Full scenarios are listed below.

NOTES:
- ATL will be #1 seed UNLESS they lose and either NO or CHI wins
- ATL will be #2 seed if they lose and NO loses and CHI wins
- ATL will be #5 seed if they lose and both NO and CHI win
- NO can only be a #1 or #5 seed and will be #1 if they win and ATL loses
- If NO not #1 seed, they will be #5 and play AT NFC West winner (STL or SEA) Wild Card weekend (Saints beat both teams this year at home)
- CHI is the #2 seed unless ATL and NO both lose and CHI wins...then CHI would be #1 seed
- PHI is the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed (either GB, NYG or TB) on Wild Card weekend
- The STL-SEA winner (or STL in case of a tie) will host ATL or NO (whichever doesn't win the South) on Wild Card weekend
- GB will know by game time if their opponent (CHI) is locked into #2 seed (CHI would need ATL and NO losses in 1pm ET games to have chance at #1 seed).
- If GB wins, they will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend as the #6 seed.
- If TB wins early, GB knows they will need to win to get into playoffs and TB will root for GB and NYG losses to get a trip to PHI.
- TB game only matters to NYG if the Giants tie WAS.
- NYG can only get in as #6 seed and would play at PHI for a third game this season against the Eagles with a WIN and GB loss
- If TB, GB and NYG all win or all lose, GB will play at PHI on Wild Card weekend based on GB winning strength of victory tiebreaker among the three teams at 10-6 or 9-7.   At 10-6, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 74 while NYG and TB would have maximums of 65 and 59 wins respectively.  At 9-7, GB would have a minimum wins by defeated opponents of 63 while NYG and TB would have maximum of 61 and 49 wins respectively. 

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division and a first-round bye.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division and a first-round bye:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

 NEW YORK GIANTS
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

 ST. LOUIS Rams
  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE (prior to PHI-MIN Week 16 game):

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
               New Orleans - playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + one PHI loss or tie
  Atlanta clinches homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) NO loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + one PHI loss or tie
   3) NO loss or tie + CHI win + two PHI wins + ATL clinches strength of victory
       tiebreaker over PHI (see NOTE below)
[NOTE:  This is a three-way strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker between Atlanta, Chicago and Philadelphia that Chicago cannot win. Atlanta wins SOV tiebreaker unless NYG, SF, IND, and PIT all win; if all four win, Philadelphia ties Atlanta on SOV and, since Chicago drops out of tiebreaker, scenario reverts to Step 1 of two-way tiebreaker and Philadelphia wins over Atlanta based on head-to-head victory.]

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a first-round bye:
   1) one PHI loss
   2) CHI win
   3) CHI tie + one PHI tie
  Chicago clinches homefield advantage:
   1) CHI win + ATL loss + NO loss or tie + one PHI loss or tie

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
   1) PHI wins twice + CHI loss or tie
  Philadelphia clinches homefield advantage:
   1) PHI wins twice + CHI loss or tie + ATL loss + NO loss or tie
   2) PHI wins twice + ATL loss + NO loss or tie + PHI clinches at least a tie
       in strength of victory tiebreaker over ATL (see NOTE below)
[NOTE:  This is a three-way strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker between Atlanta, Chicago and Philadelphia that Chicago cannot win. Atlanta wins SOV tiebreaker unless NYG, SF, IND, and PIT all win; if all four win, Philadelphia ties Atlanta on SOV and, since Chicago drops out of tiebreaker, scenario reverts to Step 1 of two-way tiebreaker and Philadelphia wins over Atlanta based on head-to-head victory.]

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches NFC South and homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + ATL loss

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

 ST. LOUIS Rams
  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win

Here's what we are giving to the League at this point.  Too many permutations with NO/PHI/CHI/ATL based on games still left week 16 with some potential SOV messiness...so leaving some of this loose to keep it sensible.

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Atlanta - playoff spot.
               Chicago - NFC North division.
               Philadelphia - NFC East division.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona,
               San Francisco.

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia has clinched NFC East division and still has a chance to earn a
 first-round bye and homefield advantage next week as of today.

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago has clinched NFC North division and still has a chance to earn a
 first-round bye and homefield advantage next week as of today.

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South and homefield advantage with a win or tie against
 New Orleans tonight.  If Atlanta loses tonight, it still has a chance to win
 the NFC South, a first-round bye and homefield advantage next week.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches a playoff spot with a win or tie against Atlanta tonight
 and still has a chance to win the NFC South, a first-round bye and homefield
 advantage next week.  If New Orleans loses tonight, it can still clinch a
 playoff spot next week with:
  1) NO win or tie
  2) NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
   3) NYG loss + TB loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
   2) NYG win + NO loses twice
   3) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

 TAMPA BAY Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) TB win + NO loss to ATL + NYG loss or tie
   2) TB win + NO loss to ATL + GB loss or tie
   3) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
   4) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss 

 ST. LOUIS Rams
  St. Louis clinches NFC West division:
   1) STL win or tie

 SEATTLE Seahawks
  Seattle clinches NFC West division:
   1) SEA win

  AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England - AFC East division, first round bye and homefield throughout playoffs.
Kansas City - AFC West division.
Pittsburgh - playoff spot.
Baltimore - playoff spot.
New York Jets - playoff spot
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland, Houston, Miami, Oakland, Tennessee, San Diego

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win
   2) BAL loss 
   3) PIT tie + BAL tie 

 BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches AFC North division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss or tie
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss

 INDIANAPOLIS Colts
  Indianapolis clinches AFC South division:
   1) IND win or tie
   2) JAC loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches AFC South division:
   1) JAC win + IND loss

SEEDS
 #1 - NEW ENGLAND
 #2 - PIT (see scenario above)
    - BAL (see scenario above)
 #3 - KC (KC win/tie or IND loss/tie)
    - IND (IND win + KC loss)
 #4 - KC (KC loss + IND win)
    - IND (IND win + KC win/tie OR win/tie OR JAC loss/tie)
    - JAC (JAC win + IND loss)
 #5 - BAL (division scenario above does not occur)
    - PIT (division scenario above does not occur + NYJ loss/tie)
    - NYJ (NYJ win + PIT loss + BAL win/tie)
 #6 - NYJ (NYJ loss/tie OR PIT win/tie OR BAL loss
    - PIT (PIT loss + BAL win/tie + NYJ win)

Week 16 AFC Scenarios

CLINCHED:  New England, Pittsburgh (playoff spots)
ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
   New England clinches AFC East division and homefield advantage:
    1) NE win or tie
    2) NYJ loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss

 KANSAS CITY Chiefs
  Kansas City clinches AFC West division:
   1) KC win + SD loss or tie
   2) KC tie + SD loss

 BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win or tie
   2) KC loss + JAC loss or tie
   3) KC loss + IND loss or tie
   4) SD loss + JAC loss or tie
   5) SD loss + IND loss or tie

 NEW YORK Jets
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win or tie
   2) JAC loss or tie
   3) IND loss or tie
(Note:  In scenarios where a JAC or IND loss or tie occurs, NYJ has clinched strength of victory tiebreaker over SD)

WEEK 16 NFC Playoff Scenarios

NFC

ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South division and homefield advantage:
   1) ATL win or tie

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches NFC East division:
   1) PHI win
   2) PHI tie + NYG loss or tie
   3) NYG loss
  Philadelphia clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PHI tie
   2) TB loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a first-round bye:
   1) CHI win + PHI loss + NYG loss or tie

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches a playoff spot:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) TB loss or tie
 
 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYG win