Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Listed below are official Playoff Scenarios for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season.  This was a bit of a doozy with Green Bay's situation regarding clinching a playoff berth this week.  The reason is that so many teams in the mix play each other (DET-NO, NO-ATL, NYG-GB and two DAL-NYG games).

After spending much of Sunday night and Monday a.m. on Green Bay's playoff scenarios, the situation was made easier when my NY Giants laid an egg in NO.  That loss meant that no Wild Card team can come out of the East division and beat GB (even though NYG can beat GB H2H next week, they would have to win out to keep pace at 11-5 and that would mean 2 DAL losses....which would mean NYG is division champion and not in Wild Card race).

GB has some interesting twists as they have tiebreaker advantage over nearly everyone except NYG (could lose H2H this week...but that's moot wrt Wild Card berth) and DET (DET can beat GB on Common Opponents).  GB already has beaten both NO and ATL H2H.  Also...the big twist is that ATL beat DET H2H and can use DET in some scenarios to jump ahead of GB.  In the GB playoff scenario below where they make it in with a TIE + CHI loss or tie, they need that loss as ATL can beat GB at 11-4-1 if DET is also 11-4-1 and not division champion.  ATL gets in as #5 and DET is #6.  Thus...the need for the CHI loss or tie which would negate two other teams ahead of GB in NFC North.

So after all that, here are the Scenarios for GB (Division and Playoff) and SF (division only).  If NYG had beaten NO last night GB would have had a scenario to clinch a first round playoff bye...but alas...that did not occur.

WEEK 13 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

NFC

  CLINCHED:    None.
  ELIMINATED:  Minnesota, St. Louis.

GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches North Division title:
   1) GB win + DET loss or tie
   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie + DET loss
   3) CHI loss + DET loss
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie
   3) CHI loss
   4) ATL loss
   5) DET loss
   6) NO loss + ATL tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
  San Francisco clinches West Division title:
   1) SF win or tie
   2) SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

AFC

  CLINCHED:    None.
  ELIMINATED:  Indianapolis.


Joe

 

  

Here are official scenarios we sent to the League for Week 12:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

  San Francisco clinches West Division title:

   1) SF win + SEA loss or tie

   2) SF tie + SEA loss

 

GREEN BAY Packers

  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:

   1) GB win + DAL loss or tie + ATL loss

   2) GB win + DAL loss or tie + NO loss

   3) GB win + ATL loss + NYG loss or tie


The Niners situation is fairly obvious as they need to win on overall record at this point since they can't clinch either H2H, division record, common games or conf record tiebreakers.   

As for GB, that's a little more difficult since so many teams involved have to play each other still.  NYG and DAL still have 2 games left H2H.  NO plays nearly everyone involved as they play NYG this week and still have DET and ATL on their remaining schedule.

A GB win gets Packers to 11-0 and 11-5 at worst.  If Saints or Falcons get to five losses, they cannot get in over Packers.  Neither team can use DET or CHI to get in over GB either since both of those teams would lose a tiebreaker to GB at 11-5.  At 11-5, both DET and CHI would have to win certain games to tie GB in the division at 4-2 and that would lead to GB beating both teams on common opponents.  Currently GB leads DET in common games at 9-0 vs. 6-2 and leads CHI 8-0 vs. 6-2 and GB would go to 9-0 in CHI scenario with win at DET this week.

A DAL loss or tie this week is one key as that would force DAL to beat NYG twice to stay at pace with GB and would only leave the NFC East champion and no Wild Card contenders.  If you combine the DAL loss/tie with either an ATL loss (ATL lost to GB H2H and would have inferior conf record and can't use anyone to jump GB in multi-team tiebreaker) or a NO loss (loss would require NO to beat either DET or ATL to stay at pace with GB), that gets GB a playoff spot.

Since GB plays NYG wk 13, an NYG loss/tie on its own is not as key since the Giants could beat GB H2H in tiebreaker.  However, for that NYG-GB H2H to come into play, NYG would have to sweep DAL thus eliminating the Cowboys from this tiebreaker and gives NYG the East title.  When you combine that with an ATL loss it gets GB to a point where only one of DET or CHI could be Wild Card in front of them (the other would be the division winner).

If you don't factor in potential ties (especially for NO games down the road), GB really only needs a win and either a DAL loss or NYG loss to get into the playoffs.  However, ties are possible and must be factored in to actually CLINCH a playoff spot with no room for error.   

Hope that helps...Joe  

 
   

It's that time of year again where we dive into all of the various NFL playoff race possibilities...including division clinching scenarios, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, wild card spots, seeding possibilities and the inevitable elimination scenarios and ultimately draft positioning.

This year, much like last year, I'm going to post tiebreaker updates to this blog on a regular basis, react to scenario questions both in the blog and in appropriate threads and work with the CBSSports.com production team on providing the earliest and most up-to-date playoff scenarios available.  I will also have live updates available on Twitter and Facebook at @NFL_Tiebreakers and http://www.facebook.com/pages/NFL-T
iebreakers-Expert-Joe-Ferreira/1327
49173466365 .  Following there DURING NFL games will provide updates for you the same way I do with CBS Sports and team personnel with an interest in scenarios.

Also, the CBSSports.com team has come up with some nice updates to the PLAYOFF RACE page with easier to read "Remaining games" pop up when you mouse over teams AND added the Note tag that provides tiebreaking notes from bottom of the page in pop up form as well. 

WHY ME?
For some background, I handled the official tiebreakers for the NFL from the 1992 playoffs through the 1999 season and have worked with the League and their official stats source (Elias Sports Bureau) in compiling the official tiebreaker scenarios since leaving the League to join CBS SportsLine in 2000.  I have transitioned jobs from Executive Producer at CBS SportsLine (now CBSSports.com) to being the liaison for CBS Interactive to the CBS Entertainment Network and CBS TV Studios in Los Angeles...but I keep my fingers in sports through this venture and working with the CBS Sports division and various NFL teams and media outlets on playoff scenarios.  This allows CBSSports.com to publish what is typically the FIRST look at what will be OFFICIAL NFL tiebreaker scenarios.  I'll try and blog my way through the process...so you can get an insight into your favorite teams prospects (or maybe your mortal enemies) and get a better understanding how NFL Tiebreakers work and the interesting nuances that will surface.

As I stated last year, please DON'T BE SHY with the questions as I often get extremely insightful feedback from fans and closet tiebreaker gurus (there are many of you out there that will be ever-present on this board...and I LOVE IT!) that help me along the way.

This is sure to be a complicated, challenging tiebreaker season (especially in the AFC) but will no doubt be very enjoyable as always.

FYI:  INDY is still alive in the playoff race at 0-10 as they can still get to 6-10 and can win multiple team tiebreakers on conf record.  SF can clinch the NFC West during Week 12 with EITHER a WIN at BAL Turkey night + SEA loss or tie OR a TIE at BAL and SEA loss.

Stay Tuned! 

Joe Ferreira
(JoeNFL)