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Tag:Saints
Posted on: December 13, 2011 1:20 am
 

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Week 14 brought us some separation as the top teams in the AFC (NE, BAL, HOU, PIT) all won and the Jets grabbed a Wild Card spot for now with a badly needed win since all 5 of NYJ's losses are conference losses.  And then there's DEN-BOW.  Seriously?  This story just keeps on getting more and more incredible each week!

On the NFC side, NYG pulled out a huge late win at DAL and secured the lead in the NFC East (DAL could have clinched division title in wk 15 if they had won).  GB and NO continued their positive push forward with NO gaining a playoff berth and GB getting a first round bye, but the field goal happy 49ers stumbled against ARI.  DET and ATL kept up their Wild Card positions, but the Tebow-ed CHI squad is now on the outside looking in.

Playoff clinching scenarios for Week 15 are below.  Looked at DET and ATL potential clinching scenarios, but since both teams are playing AFC opponents they could still end up with 6-6 conference records (not typical for playoff teams) and DET can still be caught by CHI and lost to ATL H2H and ATL lost to CHI H2H...both teams have to wait at least another week for playoff qualification.

Also...since the only scenario keeping PIT from having already clinched a playoff berth is a PIT-TEN-DEN Wild Card tie at 10-6 that goes to Strength of Victory, we looked at whether any combination of game results during Wk 15 could clinch that SOV for PIT and there is none.  So PIT must rely on the scenarios below.

Joe

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: HOUSTON (AFC South Champ)
Eliminated: IND (Wk 12), JAC (Wk 13), BUF (Wk 14), CLE (Wk 14), MIA (Wk 14)  

NEW ENGLAND clinches division title with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NYJ loss/tie
3) NYJ loss

NEW ENGLAND clinches playoff berth with:
1) TIE
2) CIN loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

BALTIMORE clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss + TEN loss/tie
3) NYJ loss + OAK loss/tie
4) TEN loss/tie + OAK loss/tie

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) NYJ loss
3) TEN loss/tie
4) OAK loss/tie
5) DEN loss

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Clinched: GREEN BAY (NFC North Champ + 1st Round Playoff Bye), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC West Champ), NEW ORLEANS (Playoff)
Eliminated: MIN (Wk 12), STL (Wk 12), CAR (Wk 14), TB (Wk 14), WAS (Wk 14) 

GREEN BAY clinches home-field advantage with:
1) WIN or TIE
2) SF loss/tie

NEW ORLEANS clinches division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss/tie
2) TIE + ATL loss

Posted on: December 6, 2011 1:18 am
 

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

So week 13 has come and gone and we now have 4 games left in the playoff race.   We only eliminated one team (JAC on Monday night), but we did get two teams into the Playoffs.   Congrats to the Green Bay Packers for winning the NFC North division title and to the San Francisco 49ers for securing the NFC West division title.  Somehow I don't think Mike Singletary is celebrating much this week...but don't tell him I said that.  ;-)

Week 13 saw some separation in the AFC with the top teams (BAL, PIT, NE, HOU) all winning to get to 9-3.  The Denver Tebows keep on rolling and now control their own destiny in the West with Oakland's loss to Miami.  

In the NFC, Dallas tripped up against Arizona and gave life to the Giants as both teams still control their own destiny for the division title.  GB and SF look like they are headed for bye weeks, but New Orleans will give the Niners a run for their money with a relatively weak schedule.  And Detroit and Chicago both look like teams that are not headed in the right direction.

Here's the PLAYOFF PICTURE for WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED:  None
ELIMINATED:  INDIANAPOLIS (Wk 12), JACKSONVILLE (Wk 13) 

NEW ENGLAND clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOUSTON clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PITTSBURGH clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

CLINCHED: GREEN BAY (NFC NORTH), SAN FRANCISCO (NFC WEST)
ELIMINATED: MINNESOTA (Wk 12), ST. LOUIS (Wk 12) 

GREEN BAY clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NEW ORLEANS clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss

Posted on: December 21, 2009 1:51 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

Here's prelim look at Week 16 (i'll break this into AFC and NFC for Tuesday if that's the way people want it):

NFC
(Key Games: NYG at WAS Monday night, CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

  NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
  PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
  GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY Giants BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) GB win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
  DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY GIANTS BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) DAL win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
 
 AFC
(Key Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

  SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie
  NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie

[Note:  I think DEN scenario works with HOU beating MIA because DEN would clinch SOV over HOU in this scenario.  In initial review, I have DEN +12 wins in unduplicated victories and HOU only has ability to gain 9 wins over last two weeks.] 
Posted on: December 8, 2009 4:32 am
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

WEEK 14 SCENARIOS

NEW ORLEANS Saints
New Orleans has clinched the South division title.

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + PHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

MINNESOTA Vikings
Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win + GB loss
Minnesota clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + NYG loss

ARIZONA Cardinals
Arizona clinches West division:
   1) ARI win

INDIANAPOLIS Colts
Indianapolis has clinched the South division title.

Indianapolis clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) IND win
   2) IND tie + CIN loss + SD loss
Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye:
   1) IND tie
   2) CIN loss or tie + SD loss
   3) CIN loss + SD loss or tie

SAN DIEGO Chargers
San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + NE loss or tie
   3) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + JAC tie + NE loss
   4) SD tie + BAL loss + PIT loss + NYJ loss + MIA loss

CINCINNATI Bengals
Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) BAL loss + PIT loss 


KEY GAMES WEEK 14:
THURS 12/10
- PIT @ CLEV (Pitt last hope?)
SUN 12/13 (1PM)
- GB @ CHIC (Need to win this with PIT, SEA and ARIZ coming up)
- NO @ ATL (ATL still in running although bleak, NO looking for HFA)
- DET @ BALT (MNF loss a killer for BALT...need to stay with JAX)
- DEN @ INDY (DEN still in div hunt and 2 of last 3 are easier, OAK and KC)
- NYJ @ TB (Jets still alive...but last 3 games tough with ATL, IND and CIN)
- CAR @ NE (Pats still stinging from MIA loss...need to bounce back)
- MIA @ JAX (Huge game for AFC Tiebreak...can separate JAX or bunch it up)
- CIN @ MIN (both teams battling for playoff bye)
SUN 12/13 (4PM)
- SD @ DAL (SD on a roll looking to get div and bye, DALL has TOUGH road ahead)
SUN 12/13 (8:30PM)
- PHIL @ NYG (NFC East crown likely on line due to DALL sked)
MON 12/14
- ARIZ @ SF (Division crown on line)

ELIMINATED TEAMS:
DET, STL, TB, CLEV, WASH, KC

Current Seeds IF SEASON ENDED TODAY:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace

(Tip:  You can mouse over team names in playoff race and get Remaining Schedule)

Lensova...please post your "Spectrum of Possibilities" note here...

Scot...please post your "Controls Own Destiny" note that you stole from Lensova here...

Posted on: December 6, 2009 5:57 pm
 

After 1pm ET games Week 13

* New Orleans clinched the NFC South division title

* MINN can clinch NFC North with Win tonight vs ARIZ + GB loss Monday night. 
A MINN win tonight will get them at least a playoff berth.  Also, a tie and a NYG loss today will get the Vikings a playoff spot.

* Indy has already clinched the AFC South and will not clinch a first round bye this week.
HOWEVER, IND can clinch homefield advantage hroughout the playoffs with a win at home week 14 vs DEN.

* CIN can clinch the AFC North division title with a WIN next week at MINN and one BALT loss either this Monday night at GB OR next week vs. DET

Much more to come later...

Posted on: December 1, 2009 1:18 am
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Based on New Orleans' victory over New England, here are the updated official NFL tiebreaker scenarios that will be released tomorrow:

NEW ORLEANS Saints

New Orleans clinches South division:
1) NO win or tie
2) ATL loss or tie

MINNESOTA Vikings

Minnesota clinches North division:
1) MIN win + GB loss

Minnesota clinches playoff spot:
1) MIN win
2) MIN tie + NYG loss + ATL loss or tie

INDIANAPOLIS Colts

Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye:
1) IND win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie + CIN loss


Joe

Posted on: November 30, 2009 2:47 am
 

Looking Toward Week 13

Let's get an early start on Week 13.

First, to recap Week 12, we had the following occur:
- INDY CLINCHED THE AFC SOUTH division title with their win and JAX loss.
- NEW ORLEANS could not clinch the NFC South title since ATL won and can still catch the Saints in the division even with a Saints win this Monday Night.
- CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT and ST. LOUIS were all ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION.


MINNESOTA CAN CLINCH the NFC NORTH division title with:
- WIN at Arizona + GB loss vs. Balt

NEW ORLEANS CAN CLINCH the NFC SOUTH division title with:
- Two WINS (this week and next)
- One WIN + One TIE (over this week and next)
- One WIN (either week) + ATL loss or tie vs. Phil

(still looking at N.O. clinching a playoff berth with One Win + ATL win...and MINN clinching with win + GB win...will confirm either way after game tomorrow or sooner)

Quick look shows INDY CAN CLINCH a FIRST-ROUND PLAYOFF BYE with a WIN + SD loss + CIN loss + DEN loss/tie + NE loss to MIA (will confirm in the a.m.)
- WIN gets Indy to 12-4 at worst and 8-4 at worst in conference.
- INDY needs DEN loss or tie since they play DEN in 2 weeks and Broncos could have conf record advantage as well w/o loss or tie.
- SD and CIN both losing gets rid of one of them since they play each other...but keep in mind CIN can still beat INDY since they could still get to 9-3 in conference and beat Indy on that basis.
- INDY would have common opponents advantage over SD (4-1 vs. 3-2)
- NE loss to MIA is key since it would be a conference loss getting NE to 8-4 at best AND would give INDY the common games tiebreaker among INDY, NE and SD (4-1 vs. 3-2 for others). 
- If there is a 3-way tie among IND, CIN and NE, CIN would have to win out after losing this week to tie Indy at 12-4 and that would make them #1 with 9-3 conf record and would pit INDY vs NE for #2 and Bill Belichick helped decide that for Indy.  ;-)

Joe


 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com