Due to incredible demand (okay...maybe it's just a few vocal individuals)...I'd like to float this blog entry to discuss NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures.
Discussion topics should include:
- Any questions on the Rules and how they are applied in figuring out NFL scenarios prior to the end of the regular season (my job for last 18 seasons)
- Historical Anecdotes on NFL Tiebreaking Rules and past examples of the application of the Rules on Prior seasons
- Potential ways for the NFL to improve the Tiebreaker Rules
- Why can't we all just get along? (kidding...sort of)
- Anything else that comes up NFL Tiebreaker, Draft order, Scheduling Formula related
Hopefully we'll get our regulars here along with some new voices to chime in...and I will check here as often as possible to answer any questions directed at me.
Let the party begin!!!
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures Discussion
Posted on: January 3, 2012 1:51 am
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database224
Since: Jan 8, 2010 |
Posted on: February 6, 2012 10:59 am
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionBrett, you've made some good points about the draft stuff. It is possible my research was tainted with obsolete data. I will take some time this week or next to correct some things. I had come across the same article on randy moss as you had for waiverr claims. And I here your point about seeding. Maybe I'll retitle the first page as "NFL procedure for seeding and ranking teams" Talk to you soon
-Cheers -Jerry |
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bretteis6 |
Posted on: February 4, 2012 7:33 pm
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionThis article, from mid-season last year, indicates that there would have been a coin flip between New Orleans and Green Bay despite these teams being from the same conference.
Seems like waiver priority is determined by: 1) overall winning percentage 2) strength of schedule 3) coin flip (or collection of flips for multiple tied teams.) |
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bretteis6 |
Posted on: February 4, 2012 5:31 am
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures Discussionre: waivers
Below is what I've figured out. A few questions remain. During the regular season, waiver priority is based on the current standings if after week 3. Before the conclusion of week 3 (and during the offseason), waiver priority is based on the stadings from the previously completed season. Ties in overall record are broken by strength of schedule. |
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bretteis6 |
Posted on: February 3, 2012 11:31 pm
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionJerry,
I have several comments about your most recent version. They are meant to be constructive comments not criticism. Seeding for rounds two through seven of the Selection Meeting This is incorrect. You must have been referencing an older version of the procedure. All non-playoff teams draft ahead of all playoff teams in every round. This is easily verified by looking at draft results from the previous two seasons. Ties will not be broken for clubs with the same record in rounds two though seven. Instead they will be ordered by rotating position using the following process:I don't like the wording above. I like to think of it as "ties are always broken". By breaking the ties, the 1st round is set, and via the rotation rule, so is the order set for all subsequent rounds. How about this wording: "Tied teams (tied according to the above [correct] ranking procedure) rotate draft positions. From one round to the next, the team with the top position drops to the bottom, while the other teams move up one spot in the order.
"with selections occuring in reverse order" - this is unnecessary and confusing. It doesn't make sense to me to (1) rank teams, (2) rotate the teams, then (3) reverse the order. Too many steps if you ask me. I think my sentence above communicates the rotation rule quite effectively. Seeding for waiver claim order"pre-postseason"? Is this a fancy term for "regular season"? I would double check this fact to make sure it is current. If it is based on the previous years final regular season standings, then it would have to be based on the most recent draft order (as standings alone cannot be used to rank all 32 teams). In baseball, waiver priority is the reverse order of the "current standings" as waiver claims are most often made during the season. I would imagine (although I do not know for sure) that waiver claims in the NFL can also be made mid-season. It would therefore be good to know if teams have priority based on the current standings or based on the most recent draft order. Come to think of it, Kyle Orton was claimed mid-season by the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm pretty sure it was based on the current standings (reverse order) with all AFC teams having priority over all NFC teams due to Orton being released by an AFC team (Denver). Last point: "Seeding" is the wrong word!"seeding" only refers to tournaments. I have never heard this word used for drafts or for waivers. I would use "draft position" for drafts. and "waiver priority" or "waiver position" for waivers.Hope this helps! |
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bretteis6 |
Posted on: February 3, 2012 11:24 pm
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionJerry,
I have several comments about your most recent version. They are meant to be constructive comments not criticism. <span id="internal-source-marker_0.5516003059859717" style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Seeding for rounds two through seven of the Selection Meeting This is incorrect. You must have been referencing an older version of the procedure. All non-playoff teams draft ahead of all playoff teams in every round. This is easily verified by looking at draft results from the previous two seasons. <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Ties will not be broken for clubs with the same record in rounds two though seven. Instead they will be ordered by rotating position using the following process:I don't like the wording above. I like to think of it as "ties are always broken". By breaking the ties, the 1st round is set, and via the rotation rule, so is the order set for all subsequent rounds. How about this wording: "Tied teams (tied according to the above [correct] ranking procedure) rotate draft positions. From one round to the next, the team with the top position drops to the bottom, while the other teams move up one spot in the order.
"with selections occuring in reverse order" - this is unnecessary and confusing. It doesn't make sense to me to (1) rank teams, (2) rotate the teams, then (3) reverse the order. Too many steps if you ask me. I think my sentence above communicates the rotation rule quite effectively. <span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Seeding for waiver claim order"pre-postseason"? Is this a fancy term for "regular season"? I would double check this fact to make sure it is current. If it is based on the previous years final regular season standings, then it would have to be based on the most recent draft order (as standings alone cannot be used to rank all 32 teams). In baseball, waiver priority is the reverse order of the "current standings" as waiver claims are most often made during the season. I would imagine (although I do not know for sure) that waiver claims in the NFL can also be made mid-season. It would therefore be good to know if teams have priority based on the current standings or based on the most recent draft order. Come to think of it, Kyle Orton was claimed mid-season by the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm pretty sure it was based on the current standings (reverse order) with all AFC teams having priority over all NFC teams due to Orton being released by an AFC team (Denver). <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> Last point: "Seeding" is the wrong word!"seeding" only refers to tournaments. I have never heard this word used for drafts or for waivers. I would use "draft position" for drafts. and "waiver priority" or "waiver position" for waivers.Hope this helps! <span id="internal-source-marker_0.5516003059859717" style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Seeding for rounds two through seven of the Selection Meeting <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">For the 2nd and subsequent rounds, clubs will be seeded as follows with selections occurring in reverse order. <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> 1-2. & <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> 3-32. Non-Superbowl teams ranked from best to worst record <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Ties will not be broken for clubs with the same record in rounds two though seven. Instead they will be ordered by rotating position using the following process: <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">A. For each group of clubs with the same record, order them by highest to lowest seed from the previous round. <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">B. Next, move the club seeded lowest in the last round to the top of it’s group. This is the order clubs shall be seeded for the given round, with selections occurring in reverse order. <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">C. Repeat this rotation process for each subsequent round <span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Seeding for waiver claim order <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">NFL Waiver claim orders are assigned in reverse order of the pre-postseason league standings. Clubs are seeded from best record to worst record. <span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> |
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bretteis6 |
Posted on: February 3, 2012 10:46 pm
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionIf Final League standings ties exist they are broken by the following tiebreaking process.I don't understand #3. Why would non-playoff teams from different divisions (and same conference) be "previously ranked"? re: coin flipping I understand your two examples where better ranking is preferred over the better draft position. However, after the season is over, there is no doubt that the beter draft position is preferred over the better ranking. How about: before the season starts, a "coin flipping" tournament with all 32 teams? That way all teams can be positioned on a "ladder" such that if the tiebreaking step, "coin toss", ever came into play, the ties would be broken according to the previously determined "ladder" ranking. I doubt this idea would ever fly, but it's the only way I could ever see the loser of a coin flip getting the better draft position. Sorry for not supporting you on this one. |
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database224
Since: Jan 8, 2010 |
Posted on: February 3, 2012 1:11 pm
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionWhere's Joe? |
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database224
Since: Jan 8, 2010 |
Posted on: February 3, 2012 9:22 am
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionBrett,
Now, as you can see, we have a 1st round draft order that is nota mirror immage of the standings, yet is considered to be a valid method.I disagree. The final league standings are not the division standings as this would make no sense for the 28 teams outside of a division. The Final league standings are by definition decided by the following list 1-2. Super Bowl winner and Super Bowl loser 3-4. Conference Championship game losers ranked from best to worst record 5-8. Divisional Playoff game losers ranked from best to worst record 9-12. Wild Card Playoff game losers ranked from best to worst record 13-32. Non-Playoff participants ranked from best to worst record If Final League standings ties exist they are broken by the following tiebreaking process.
As I've mentioned before we should not be using the coin flip to determine the reverse standings, we should using the standings to determine the reverse standings. In other words, the highest ranking of the 3 teams was not determined first.I agree with you that this is how they did it then. This is because the League is probably unaware of these inconsistencies in their process. It's doubtful that anyone ever at the league has examined and analyzed tiebreaking as exhaustively as those of us in this forum. Let's keep it real. I mean we are debating how a coin flip should work. But that's is our nature. For a brief while, I felt the same way you do. But, then I decided that "coin flipping" has its own inherent rules. The winner of a coin flip always gets his choice or gets the better of the two outcomes. Allow me to help real you in from the dark side. The first part of what you said is irrelevant in tiebreaking because NFL tiebreaking is an objective process. There is nothing subjective about it. Never has been and likely never will be. Therefore we can just rule out the part about a team having choice with regards to coin flips as it relates to tie-breaking. I do agree with the second piece though in that the winner of the coin flip does get the better of the two outcomes. This depends largely on how you define the better outcome. In my opinion the better outcome is the team who results with the better season ending seeding, not the team that gets higher draft pick. Here are two examples. When a team starts their season, the outcome they desire is to finish at the top of the league standings and pick 32nd in the draft. No team aims to finish last when starting thier season so that they may pick first. Example2. Suppose for some unforseen reason the Superbowl could not be completed (like one of those soccer riots). If the league decided that the only fair means to award a single winner of the Superbowl was to use a coin flip then those teams are certainly going to view the better outcome as the team awarded the 32 pick in the draft not the 31st pick in the draft. When there is consistency in how we apply the coin flip for producing standings we can create a beatifully cohesive procedure that is consistent across all categories of standings. For example, check out my link below. Here is a link to my most recent version of the procedure-Cheers -Jerry |
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database224
Since: Jan 8, 2010 |
Posted on: February 3, 2012 8:22 am
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures DiscussionBrett,
A sweep qualifies where one or more clubs has each defeated or each lost to each of the remaining clubs. = A sweep qualifies where one or more clubs has each defeated each of the remaining clubs. I understand both points regarding use of the word "remaining" and "other". I think use of the word "remaining" is fine here because it is not being used in the context of the word "eliminated" within the same sentence. If the word "eliminated" was used in the same sentence then I could see definite confusion over what the appropriate application of "remaining" is. For those whom still might be confused over what is meant by remaining they can simply refer to the H2H sweep examples in the Tie-breaking clarifications section. You pointed out a fact that I realized a while ago, in that the H2H sweep definition is self-correcting. If the reader does not eliminate the most teams that could be eliminated in the first pass, the other teams will be eliminated the next time H2H sweep is reapplied. It's just so beautiful. -Cheers -Jerry |
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bretteis6 |
Posted on: February 3, 2012 2:06 am
NFL Tiebreaking Rules and Procedures Discussionre: coin flipping
For a brief while, I felt the same way you do. But, then I decided that "coin flipping" has its own inherent rules. The winner of a coin flip always gets his choice or gets the better of the two outcomes. To decide a playoff team, the winner of the flip should get the playoff berth. To decide a top draft pick (or more desirable draft pick), the winner of the flip should get that pick. We don't need to worry about the inconsistency between flipping for a playoff birth and flipping for a draft position. The draft order tiebreaking procedure is already distinctly different in that it begins with strength of schedule. Not to mention, I could argue that it would be more "consistent" if both procedures (playoff tiebreaking and draft order tiebreaking) began by first identifying the most desirable position. then the next most desirable position, and so on. Back to coin flipping: rather than have the potential for multiple flips, I think one coin flip, AFC vs. NFC, would suffice. Then all the 1st round draft positions among the tied group would be determined by conference rankings. All AFC teams (among the tied group) draft ahead of all NFC teams (among the tied group), or vice versa. That, or institute my "inter-conference" tiebreaking procedure posted awhile back. Having an '"inter-conference" tiebreaking procedure would make it possible to have the first round draft order be a mirror image of the league rankings. Even still - I could see an argument for stopping the ranking once all playoff teams have been determined, then begin the ranking again starting with the lowest ranking team (ie. highest draft position). Not sure what my preference is on all this. I just wish that something goes into writing that will take away all the uncertainty. I also kind of hope that all the alternatives are understood and discussed by those making the decisions. |
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