CLEV can be eliminated this week with a loss at MIA and a BAL-PIT tie game. The BAL-PIT tie advances both BAL and PIT ahead of the best CLEV can get to in this scenario (8-8) and would create 6 teams better CLEV (4 division winners plus 2 wild cards better than 8-8).
CLEV out with:DEN is eliminated with a loss at KC. Pretty simple...DEN would be 7-9 at best and KC would be 8-8 at worst so DEN couldn't win the division and there are already two wild card teams better than 7-9.
- LOSS + BAL-PIT tie
DEN out with:
I have DAL eliminated with a LOSS AND EITHER a PHIL win/tie OR a GB win/tie OR a TB win/tie. A loss combined with a win or tie by any of those three teams and DAL is done. If DAL loses, that gets them to 7-9 at best. That record would eliminate them from winning the NFC East as NYG and PHIL play each other week 15 and one of them would be better than 7-9. Also, and this is important to note, NYG plays GB week 16 so one of those teams is guaranteed to be better than 7-9 as well. A NYG Win on it's own doesn't eliminate DAL with a loss as NYG could beat PHIL week 15 and GB week 16 and PHIL, GB and TB could lose out and DAL could win that tiebreaker at 7-9. In that tiebreaker, DAL can still get to 6-6 in conf record even with a loss this week, and they can still sweep PHIL and, even though they lost H2H to GB, would beat GB and TB in 3-way wild card tiebreaker on conf record (6-6 to 5-7 for the other two teams). HOWEVER, a PHIL win/tie by itself would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would get PHIL better than 7-9 AND when you factor in NYG and GB playing week 16, would get two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9. If neither NYG or PHIL win/tie this week, a GB or TB win/tie would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would put two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9 and remember that NYG and PHIL still play each other week 15 which would keep DAL from winning the division.
DAL out with:
- LOSS + PHIL win/tie
- LOSS + GB win/tie
- LOSS + TB win/tie
MINN can also be eliminated this week. I have MINN out with a LOSS AND CHI win/tie AND GB win AND EITHER a NO win/tie or TB win/tie. A MINN loss would get them to 4-8 and 8-8 at best (they do have a chance to still get to 8-4 in conference). If GB wins, that gets them to 8-8 at worst and GB has swept MINN. Even though CHI-GB play each other week 17, we would still need a CHI win or tie to eliminate MINN this week as MINN could beat CHI on common opponents. The CHI win/tie and GB win would relegate MINN to 3rd in the division at best. So, we only need one more wild card to be either better than 8-8 or have tiebreaker advantage in all scenarios over MINN. With NO at 8-3, a win or tie by them would secure that other wild card and NO, even though they beat MINN H2H week 1, could still lose to MINN in multi-team tiebreak based on conference record...so they need the win or tie in this scenario. Also, a win or tie by 7-4 TB would also create a situation where TB plays NO week 17 and the winner (or "tie-ers") of that game would be better than 8-8. So, a MINN loss plus the GB win plus a CHI win/tie and either a NO win/tie or a TB win/tie would eliminate MINN this year.
MINN out with:Look for my posts in the comments below throughout the weekend for updates. If significant Week 14 sceanrios surface on Sunday, I'll likely post a new blog on that. Once we get into heavy tiebreaker scenarios, I'll likely split the AFC and NFC scenarios into separate blogs.
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + NO win/tie
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + TB win/tie