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Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

Posted on: December 1, 2010 2:29 pm
 
Since we don't have any clinching scenarios for week 13 (first time this has occurred in the League since the 2000 season), I will detail the ELIMINATION SCENARIOS that could come into play this week.

CLEV can be eliminated this week with a loss at MIA and a BAL-PIT tie game.  The BAL-PIT tie advances both BAL and PIT ahead of the best CLEV can get to in this scenario (8-8) and would create 6 teams better CLEV (4 division winners plus 2 wild cards better than 8-8).

CLEV out with:
- LOSS + BAL-PIT tie
DEN is eliminated with a loss at KC.  Pretty simple...DEN would be 7-9 at best and KC would be 8-8 at worst so DEN couldn't win the division and there are already two wild card teams better than 7-9.

DEN out with:
- LOSS

I have DAL eliminated with a LOSS AND EITHER a PHIL win/tie OR a GB win/tie OR a TB win/tie.  A loss combined with a win or tie by any of those three teams and DAL is done.  If DAL loses, that gets them to 7-9 at best.   That record would eliminate them from winning the NFC East as NYG and PHIL play each other week 15 and one of them would be better than 7-9.  Also, and this is important to note, NYG plays GB week 16 so one of those teams is guaranteed to be better than 7-9 as well.  A NYG Win on it's own doesn't eliminate DAL with a loss as NYG could beat PHIL week 15 and GB week 16 and PHIL, GB and TB could lose out and DAL could win that tiebreaker at 7-9.  In that tiebreaker, DAL can still get to 6-6 in conf record even with a loss this week, and they can still sweep PHIL and, even though they lost H2H to GB, would beat GB and TB in 3-way wild card tiebreaker on conf record (6-6 to 5-7 for the other two teams).  HOWEVER, a PHIL win/tie by itself would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would get PHIL better than 7-9 AND when you factor in NYG and GB playing week 16, would get two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9.  If neither NYG or PHIL win/tie this week, a GB or TB win/tie would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would put two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9 and remember that NYG and PHIL still play each other week 15 which would keep DAL from winning the division.

DAL out with:
- LOSS + PHIL win/tie
- LOSS + GB win/tie
- LOSS + TB win/tie

MINN can also be eliminated this week.  I have MINN out with a LOSS AND CHI win/tie AND GB win AND EITHER a NO win/tie or TB win/tie.  A MINN loss would get them to 4-8 and 8-8 at best (they do have a chance to still get to 8-4 in conference).  If GB wins, that gets them to 8-8 at worst and GB has swept MINN.  Even though CHI-GB play each other week 17, we would still need a CHI win or tie to eliminate MINN this week as MINN could beat CHI on common opponents.  The CHI win/tie and GB win would relegate MINN to 3rd in the division at best.  So, we only need one more wild card to be either better than 8-8 or have tiebreaker advantage in all scenarios over MINN.  With NO at 8-3, a win or tie by them would secure that other wild card and NO, even though they beat MINN H2H week 1, could still lose to MINN in multi-team tiebreak based on conference record...so they need the win or tie in this scenario.  Also, a win or tie by 7-4 TB would also create a situation where TB plays NO week 17 and the winner (or "tie-ers") of that game would be better than 8-8.   So, a MINN loss plus the GB win plus a CHI win/tie and either a NO win/tie or a TB win/tie would eliminate MINN this year.

MINN out with:
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + NO win/tie
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + TB win/tie
Look for my posts in the comments below throughout the weekend for updates.   If significant Week 14 sceanrios surface on Sunday, I'll likely post a new blog on that.   Once we get into heavy tiebreaker scenarios, I'll likely split the AFC and NFC scenarios into separate blogs.

Enjoy!


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Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

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Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 10, 2010 3:39 pm
 

Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

Hello Brett,
I'm on board with a totally diplomatic approach.  There is the question though of what to do if a logical inference were to impact this season.  I guess we hope for the best and deal with it if it happens.

-Cheers



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 9, 2010 12:47 pm
 

Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

I'm wondering if we can adjust our attidue towards this. Last year I nagged Joe about the tiebreak language consistently for 4 weeks; while it provided for some really good answers, it never reached the competition committee (as far as I know). I'm imagining a way to politely inform the league that we could improve the tiebreak language so that it eliminates the confusion that still exists amongst fans and media, and also eliminates the possiblity of a dispute that could arise between clubs who interpret the procedure differently. I would like to think that this would get the attention of the competition committee just as well as threatening to expose the lack of clarity to the media and potentially igniting a dispute between a club and the NFL over being "logically infered" out of the playoffs.

Anyway, I will post my version of the tiebreak language sometime later tonight, probably around midnight east coast time (my file is at home and I may not be home until then).



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 9, 2010 2:56 am
 

Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

database said,

Therefore we should work together to hammer out an updated tiebreaking procedure that perfectly reflects the intent of the rules while being concise and non-ambiguous. Let's do this once and get it right versus piecemeal updates from year to year.
I've been meaning say something similar to this end for awhile. If we can get the competition committee to consider one discrepancy between how the tiebreak procedure is written and how it is applied, then we should get them to consider all the discrepancies at once. Or, rather than point each one out individually, present a version of the procedure as database describes, "that perfectly reflects the intent of the rules while being concise and non-ambiguous."

database and others interested,
Should we continue our discussion on this thread so as not to interfere with the main intention of Joe's blog: To discuss tiebreakers with regards to current clinching and elimination scenarios?

I will post my version of the tiebreaking procedures on here soon. The only thing in my version that I am currently not satisfied with is the complexity of the draft order tiebreaking steps; specifically when the conference and division tiebreaking procedures are used to rank the highest ranking team first, but then the lowest ranking team from each conference is selected for a coin flip. By ranking teams begining with the highest ranking team, but removing the lowest ranking team one at a time could change the relative ranking of the remaining teams. I will post more on this later.

 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 8, 2010 3:32 pm
 

Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

This message is addressed to anyone at this community whom regards themselves as a tiebreaking expert.

Now that the exciting clinching and elimination work has been completed for week 14, I want to revisit the subject of how to proceed when 4 tied teams is reduced to 3 tied teams.
  • Revert to step 1 of three club format
OR
  • Proceed to next tie-breaking step
I believe that there is a consensus amongst the tie-breaking experts at this community in that reverting to step 1 of the three club format makes logical sense.  However, sometimes something can make logical sense yet the written rules permit and even suggests a different application.  Thus is the case with the OFFICIAL NFL TIEBREAKING PROCEDURE (which is advertised in its entirety at NFL.com).  As mentioned in one of my previous posts, I have contacted the League Office for legal clarification regarding this matter.  I am still awaiting word from the league office.  I have also contacted Joe Ferreira directly to discuss this matter.  Joe did respond acknowledging the potential confusion, but reiterated that we are to revert to step 1 of the three club format.  The only rational I've heard in support of this approach from him or anyone else is that this is how things have been done since division play commenced in 2002.  

AGN wrote:
"Could you see the guy at league or Elias having that conversation with Jerry JOnes, trying to explain that: "yes, Jerry, the procedure doesn't say to revert back to 3-way tie, and yes you would have won on 4-way SOV, but Jerry -- Mr. Jones -- it just makes logical sense to ignore that and give the 2nd wild-card to the Bears on common opponents. We meant to change the regs a couple of years back, but, you know, with all the overtime talk, an hits to the head rules, and the upcoming CBA discussions, there just wasn't the time. You understand don't you, Jerry, you're a logical man, aren't you?"  
The problem is that neither the league, nor in fact our "gaggle of tie-break experts" has ever had to make the decision say, in week 15 or 16 -- never mind at season's end --  that a certain team has been eliminated, or has clinched, based on the "inferred" processes.  The few times they have come up, actual results has made the discussion moot -- usually a few weeks before the end of season.  I think all hell would break loose -- as my fictitious phone call was meant to illustrate -- if a team was "inferred" right out the play-offs. "

AGN has done a perfect job illustrating the danger that could ensue through the application of an inference should it ultimately make a difference in a teams playoff seeding or draft order.  The problem with the "we've-been-doing-it-this-way-since-200

2-rational" is that no precedent exists for applying the tiebreaker in this manner.  As AGN has pointed out, no season has ever ended in a situation where this nuance mattered.  If it had, and you could show that applying or not-applying the logical inference would have resulted in a difference in seeding/draft order, then there would already exist precedence to justify any seeding discrepancies that may emerge this season.

 

So why is this all so important anyways.  Well... playoff games draw millions of extra dollars in revenue for the affected clubs.  Any discrepancy in tiebreaking stemming from ambiguity in tiebreaking literature would result in a shhitstorm between the team owners of the affected clubs and the league front office, not to mention the fans and players of the affected clubs.

 

So how do we proceed from here.  Well, Joe has continued to defend and support the "we've-been-doing-it-this-way-since-200

2-even-though-it-has-never-mattered

-rationale", so I'm guessing that if the multi-team tiebreak inference were to rear its ugly head upon the completion of the 2010 NFL season, then Joe will have already submitted to the NFL week 17 clinching scenarios that hinged on logical inference.  So if logical inference comes into play going into any of the week 17 clinching scenarios then my plan is to contact the front offices of each of the affected clubs as well as the League front office, and to notify my contacts at all of the major sporting news outlets of the discrepancy.  In such a case, not even the competition committee could resolve the seeding discrepancy via vote.  Sadly, the only unbiased method of resolving this tie discrepancy would be via a coin flip with representatives of both clubs present for the coin flip. ("hopefully televised")

 

For subsequent years, Joe has already indicated that the league has been alerted of this case and that a minor update to the rules may be made to clean up any confusion.  Brett has also indicated that he is working on a revamped version of the tie-breaking language.  I too have been working on a draft version.  Several times this year I have contacted the league for crystal clear clarification on the intended application of the tie-breaking procedure.  As Joe has mentioned, tiebreaking procedures are an official by-law in NFL Rules and can't be changed just by altering them on NFL.com.  An official change to the by-law would need to voted on by competition committee.  Therefore we should work together to hammer out an updated tiebreaking procedure that perfectly reflects the intent of the rules while being concise and non-ambiguous. Let's do this once and get it right versus piecemeal updates from year to year.

 

If you made it to the bottom of this post, then I thank you for thoroughly caring about this matter.  I've devoted the last year of my life to becoming an expert on NFL tiebreaking so that I could create a website that definitively provides fans with the best information on a teams chances of making the playoffs as well as tiebreaking, clinch/elimination scenarios, and so on.  The site is in it's first few months and it's been a lot of fun, and a growing success.  Underneath the AFC Standings and the NFC standings tables, you can click on the link that says "Show Tiebreaking Steps Used To Generate Seedings".  There, I fully expose every step that is used in the tiebreaking process, (NOT JUST THE FINAL RESULT OF THE TIEBREAKING STEP).  I more than welcome any feedback, and I would be surprised if someone were to expose any logic flaws.  (Clinching and Elimination Scenarios will be functional starting tomorrow)  Check it out at www.playoffrace.com

 

-Cheers

 

 



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com