Blog Entry

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

Posted on: December 28, 2009 5:02 pm
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Well...we made it.   On week 16, thanks to the Giants turning in a clunker of a game against CAR, the final two playoff spots were secured.

Official Scenarios are below (prior to CHI-MIN game).

NOTES:
- MIN wins tiebreaker over NO at 13-3 based on conf record (10-2 vs. 9-3)
- Although MIN has lead on #2 seed and 1st round bye, PHI, DAL and ARI can all still garner the #2 seed.  If MIN against CHI, only PHI can catch MIN (PHI wins tiebreaker on conf record).
- ARI wins 3-way tiebreaker at 11-5 with DAL and MIN (MIN drops out on conf record and ARI beats DAL on common opponents 4-1 to 2-3)
- PHI CANNOT be the #4 seed (if they win they will be #2 or 3 seed, if they lose they lose division title)
- DAL CANNOT be the #5 seed (if they lose they lose to GB based on overall or H2H)
- GB can only be the #6 seed if PHI loses and if GB loses in that case its very likely they would play ARI AGAIN a week later in the Wild Card round
- Right now, MIN can be any seed from #1 thru #4.  If they win tonight they can't be #4 and if they lose tonight they can't be #1.


WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- North division.
              Arizona -- West division.
              Philadelphia -- playoff spot.
              Green Bay -- playoff spot.
              Dallas -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Seattle,
              Carolina, Atlanta, San Francisco, NY Giants.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   New Orleans clinches homefield advantage.

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches homefield advantage:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) MIN win + NO loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO 
   1) MIN win or tie
   2) PHI loss or tie
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches a first-round bye:
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) ARI win + MIN loss + PHI loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win or tie
  Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) PHI win + MIN loss
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) PHI win
   2) PHI tie + MIN loss or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches East divison:
   1) DAL win
  Dallas clinches a first-round bye:
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) DAL win + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie

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Comments

Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 16, 2010 1:24 am
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

brettis6 says:

The main reason for this is that a 4th place team has 2 games against the 1st place team in its own division and the 1st place team plays the 4th place team twice, but neither team plays its own self !Well of course this makes alot of difference.  But because of the 8 year rotation schedule that the NFL institued in 2002, the teams in each division only end up with 2 non-common opponents each season.  Therefore, the schedules and SoS for each team is mostly dependent on the particular 4 team common conference opponents and the 4 team common non-conference opponents.  One division's SoS for it's 4 teams are going to be based on how strong it's scheduled conference and scheduled non-conference were in the prior season.  I actually very much like this format and wouldn't change it for the current 16 game season.  However, if the NFL was looking to really give an easier SoS for last place teams each season, they could do something like this.  They could schedule(say the Detroit Lions---4th place NFC North) vs. all the other 4th place teams in the AFC.  And then they could also schedule them vs. all the other 3rd and 4th place place teams in the other NFC divisions.  The remaining 6 games would be vs. the common division teams, playing home and home vs. each. 

I am not advocating the approach I mentioned above because there'd be potential for teams to play another team nearly every season and thus also increase the potential of hardly ever playing other teams.  Though with NFL parity, it's still possible that you'd get a good mix of opponents over the seasons.  After the Patriots went 16-0, the next season the Patriots had by far the easiest SoS for the next season.  Most of that was due to their playing the others in their division 6 times, but also because they were scheduled against the easiest AFC division and the easist NFC division.  But that's just how the cookies crumble.  It's not the Patriots' fault tha their 2008 scheduled opponents basically sucked in 2007.   The really comedic thing is this though: the Pats went 11-5-0 and missed the playoffs.  Schedules are simply that: schedules.  They guarantee nothing about success or failure  for the coming season.    

      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;      Jeff



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: January 15, 2010 5:18 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

My last point is that as it stands now, with the 16 game schedule, the 1st place team in each division barely has a harder SoS over the 4th place team.
The main reason for this is that a 4th place team has 2 games against the 1st place team in its own division and the 1st place team plays the 4th place team twice, but neither team plays its own self !

I'd say there is a significant difference between Minnesota's and Detroit's Strength of Schedule in 2010.
Minnesota plays New Orleans and Arizona, while Detroit plays Tampa Bay and St. Louis.

Overall it seems to even out since Minnesota has 2 games against Detroit, while Detroit has 2 games against Minnesota. However, I think when comparing schedules between 2 teams, the head-to-head games should not be included in the comparison.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 10, 2010 12:53 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

Plus, to me, the added benefit is seeing potentially more matchups that were playoff games the SEASON before.   Not the "week" before.  Doh me 



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 10, 2010 12:50 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

agn says:

The problem with this is that it would set up a 1-2 and 3-4 split  in all the divisions, making the incentive to finish 3rd MUCH stronger than it is now. Your solution looks nice for 1st palce teams, but 2nd place teams would now have to play 6 games vs. division winners, while 3rd place teams would play 6 games vs  last place teams
  Hey there agn,

I am okay with this situation.  With the playoff races as tight as they usually are I'm not too worried about a couple teams trying to play for 3rd place as opposed to 2nd place.  There's been quite a few seasons where the 3rd place team, in a particular division, has also been one of the Wild Card teams.  Plus, to me, the added benefit is seeing potentially more matchups that were playoff games the week before.  And obviously, the 1st/2nd and 3rd/4th place teams, in each division would have all common games over the course of the season.  My last point is that as it stands now, with the 16 game schedule, the 1st place team in each division barely has a harder SoS over the 4th place team.  If you add these teams to make an 18 game schedule, then the SoS for the 1st place teams will be a good bit harder than the 4th place teams and perhaps lend itself to more parity.  Either way, the NFL standings change up so much every year, every year is quite a surprise and crap shoot.  Just my take and thanks for your opinion too agn.      Jeff    Wink



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: January 6, 2010 9:16 am
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

If they do expand the schedule to 18 games, then I'd like to see it identical to the way it is now, but have all 1st place teams also have to play the 2nd place teams in addition to the 1st place teams that they already playThe problem with this is that it would set up a 1-2 and 3-4 split  in all the divisions, making the incentive to finish 3rd MUCH stronger than it is now. Your solution looks nice for 1st palce teams, but 2nd place teams would now have to play 6 games vs. division winners, while 3rd place teams would play 6 games vs  last place teams



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 5, 2010 9:34 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning


thenflrues says:

2010 OPPONENTS (NFC):


Note: AFC Opponents listed in the AFC blog.

Well done again mr nfl rules, but of course the only caveat to all the schedule is whether or not the NFL keeps the 16 game schedule and also keeps the same formatting we've had in place since 2002.  If they do expand the schedule to 18 games, then I'd like to see it identical to the way it is now, but have all 1st place teams also have to play the 2nd place teams in addition to the 1st place teams that they already play.     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;   Jeff      Wink




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: January 5, 2010 5:34 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

The seeding is fixed at this point, there is no more tie-breaking to be done:

1. NO
2. MIN
3. DAL
4. ARI
5. GB
6. PHIL

The Division round will be determined once the 2 wild card games are played.

New Orleans will host the lowest-seeded team left, and Minesota will host the other team.

So if Dallas wins, they will play at Minnesota; If Philly wins they will play at New Orleans. So, we will know this by saturday night.

The AFC matchups won't be known until the Sunday game, where the Pats will go to Sandiage if they win, or the Ravens will go to Indy if the win.





Since: Dec 21, 2009
Posted on: January 4, 2010 11:19 am
 

PLAYOFFS: NFC SCENARIOS

Will the winner of the Dallas/Phili first round playoffs play Minnesota or New Orelans, and how is that determined?

Also, how is it determined whether Minnesota gets home field advantage for that 2nd round of the playoffs?



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2010 10:00 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

2010 OPPONENTS (NFC):

NFC EAST

DALLAS COWBOYS:

Home:  NYG, PHI, WAS, CHI, DET, JAC, TEN, NO
Away:   NYG, PHI, WAS, GB, MIN, HOU, IND, ARI

NEW YORK GIANTS:

Home:  DAL, PHI, WAS, CHI, DET, JAC, TEN, CAR
Away:   DAL, PHI, WAS, GB, MIN, HOU, IND, SEA

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES:

Home:  DAL, NYG, WAS, GB, MIN, HOU, IND, ATL
Away:   DAL, NYG, WAS, CHI, DET, JAC, TEN, SF

WASHINGTON REDSKINS:

Home:  DAL, NYG, PHI, GB, MIN, HOU, IND, TB
Away:   DAL, NYG, PHI, CHI, DET, JAC, TEN, STL

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO BEARS:

Home:  DET, GB, MIN, PHI, WAS, NE, NYJ, SEA
Away:   DET, GB, MIN, DAL, NYG, BUF, MIA, CAR

DETROIT LIONS:

Home:  CHI, GB, MIN, PHI, WAS, NE, NYJ, STL
Away:   CHI, GB, MIN, DAL, NYG, BUF, MIA, TB

GREEN BAY PACKERS:

Home:  CHI, DET, MIN, DAL, NYG, BUF, MIA, SF
Away:   CHI, DET, MIN, PHI, WAS, NE, NYJ, ATL

MINNESOTA VIKINGS:

Home:  CHI, DET, GB, DAL, NYG, BUF, MIA, ARI
Away:   CHI, DET, GB, PHI, WAS, NE, NYJ, NO

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA FALCONS:

Home:  CAR, NO, TB, ARI, SF, BAL, CIN, GB
Away:   CAR, NO, TB, STL, SEA, CLE, PIT, PHI

CAROLINA PANTHERS:

Home:  ATL, NO, TB, ARI, SF, BAL, CIN, CHI
Away:   ATL, NO, TB, STL, SEA, CLE, PIT, NYG

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:

Home:  ATL, CAR, TB, STL, SEA, CLE, PIT, MIN
Away:   ATL, CAR, TB, ARI, SF, BAL, CIN, DAL

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:

Home:  ATL, CAR, NO, STL, SEA, CLE, PIT, DET
Away:   ATL, CAR, NO, ARI, SF, BAL, CIN, WAS

NFC WEST

ARIZONA CARDINALS:

Home:  STL, SF, SEA, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, DAL
Away:   STL, SF, SEA, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, MIN

ST. LOUIS RAMS:

Home:  ARI, SF, SEA, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, WAS
Away:   ARI, SF, SEA, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, DET

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS:

Home:  ARI, STL, SEA, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, PHI
Away:   ARI, STL, SEA, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, GB

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:

Home:  ARI, STL, SF, ATL, CAR, KC, SD, NYG
Away:   ARI, STL, SF, NO, TB, DEN, OAK, CHI

Note: AFC Opponents listed in the AFC blog.



Since: Dec 17, 2008
Posted on: January 3, 2010 8:25 pm
 

WEEK 17 NFC SCENARIOS - Seed positioning

KellynMatt:

Not only that the Packers and Cardinals as well as the Cowboys and the Eagles will be playing the other a 3rd game this season.

The Packers won 44-37 against the Cardinals in the Pre-Season


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